Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists3
- Connor BedardPoints4
FlamesScoring summary
- P318:01Connor Bedard Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–0
- P37:56Andre Burakovsky Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (14)3–0
- P31:11Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (13), Andre Burakovsky (6)2–0
- P112:32Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (12), Artyom Levshunov (7)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:32Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (12), Artyom Levshunov (7)CHI 1 – 0 CGY · CHI 43% → 60% +16CHI 43% → 60%+16 pts
- P31:11Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (13), Andre Burakovsky (6)CHI 2 – 0 CGY · CHI 71% → 88% +18CHI 71% → 88%+18 pts
- P37:56Andre Burakovsky Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (14)CHI 3 – 0 CGY · CHI 94% → >99% +5CHI 94% → >99%+5 pts
- P318:01Connor Bedard Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 4 – 0 CGY · CHI >99% → >99% +0CHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 57%
- ML CHI +125 / CGY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- CGY: Elo 60.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CGY -135
- CHI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 3.0 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +5 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +77 Elo | CGY 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.431st of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.930th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.6% | Shot share | 47.8%26th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%11th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–730th of 32 |
| 21st of 323–5 | Road vs home | 2–427th of 32 |
| 4th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 15123rd of 32 |
| 31st of 321432 | Elo rating | 147626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–3 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–4 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.