Columbus Blue Jackets at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists1
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints1
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Yan KuznetsovAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:11Mikael Backlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–5
- P28:24Adam Klapka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yan Kuznetsov (1)1–4
- P27:47Nazem Kadri Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (5), Rasmus Andersson (3)1–3
- P16:57Kirill Marchenko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (6)1–2
- P11:32Blake Coleman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Hanley (3), Samuel Honzek (2)0–2
- P10:56Morgan Frost Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (4), Matt Coronato (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:56Morgan Frost Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (4), Matt Coronato (3)CBJ 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 51% → 65% +14CGY 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P11:32Blake Coleman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Hanley (3), Samuel Honzek (2)CBJ 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 65% → 78% +12CGY 65% → 78%+12 pts
- P16:57Kirill Marchenko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (6)CBJ 1 – 2 CGY · CBJ 21% → 34% +13CBJ 21% → 34%+13 pts
- P27:47Nazem Kadri Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (5), Rasmus Andersson (3)CBJ 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 70% → 85% +15CGY 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P28:24Adam Klapka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yan Kuznetsov (1)CBJ 1 – 4 CGY · CGY 85% → 94% +9CGY 85% → 94%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 51%
- ML CBJ -105 / CGY -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CGY: Elo 48.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CGY -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.7 – 2.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +4 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +9 Elo | CBJ 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.231st of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.231st of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.4% | Shot share | 48.6%19th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 4th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 1–430th of 32 |
| 10th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15132nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321502 | Elo rating | 147027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–4 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | — |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–1 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.