Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals3
- Ryan DonatoAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints3
Canucks- Aatu RatyGoals1
- Tom WillanderAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:00Connor Bedard Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Spencer Knight (1)5–2
- P318:00Evander Kane Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (7), Tom Willander (2)4–2
- P316:49Aatu Raty Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (1)4–1
- P311:37Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Louis Crevier (3), Ryan Donato (4)4–0
- P37:39Ilya Mikheyev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (3), Oliver Moore (1)3–0
- P36:46Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (11), Artyom Levshunov (6)2–0
- P33:06Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Matthew Grzelcyk (3), Connor Murphy (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:06Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Matthew Grzelcyk (3), Connor Murphy (3)CHI 1 – 0 VAN · CHI 47% → 73% +26CHI 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P36:46Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (11), Artyom Levshunov (6)CHI 2 – 0 VAN · CHI 76% → 93% +17CHI 76% → 93%+17 pts
- P37:39Ilya Mikheyev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (3), Oliver Moore (1)CHI 3 – 0 VAN · CHI 94% → >99% +5CHI 94% → >99%+5 pts
- P311:37Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Louis Crevier (3), Ryan Donato (4)CHI 4 – 0 VAN · CHI >99% → >99% +0CHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P318:00Evander Kane Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (7), Tom Willander (2)CHI 4 – 2 VAN · VAN <1% → <1% +0VAN <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 56%
- ML CHI +120 / VAN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 62.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- VAN -128
- CHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −10 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +85 Elo | VAN 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 2–326th of 32 |
| 4th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 32 |
| 31st of 321426 | Elo rating | 149220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–3 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–7 VAN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.