Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints3
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- Simon EdvinssonAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:44Oliver Moore Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (5), Matthew Grzelcyk (4)5–1
- P316:37Andre Burakovsky Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (16), Louis Crevier (4)4–1
- P35:09Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (15), Artyom Levshunov (9)3–1
- P23:22Teuvo Teravainen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (7), Tyler Bertuzzi (5)2–1
- P14:19Dylan Larkin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (9), Simon Edvinsson (3)1–1
- P10:59Connor Bedard Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (8), Teuvo Teravainen (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:59Connor Bedard Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (8), Teuvo Teravainen (8)CHI 1 – 0 DET · CHI 38% → 52% +14CHI 38% → 52%+14 pts
- P14:19Dylan Larkin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (9), Simon Edvinsson (3)CHI 1 – 1 DET · DET 47% → 62% +15DET 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P23:22Teuvo Teravainen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (7), Tyler Bertuzzi (5)CHI 2 – 1 DET · CHI 40% → 59% +18CHI 40% → 59%+18 pts
- P35:09Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (15), Artyom Levshunov (9)CHI 3 – 1 DET · CHI 72% → 91% +19CHI 72% → 91%+19 pts
- P316:37Andre Burakovsky Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (16), Louis Crevier (4)CHI 4 – 1 DET · CHI >99% → >99% +0CHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML CHI +155 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- DET: Elo 65.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -166
- CHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −3 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +108 Elo | DET 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.5% | Shot share | 50.5%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 89.1%23rd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 5–25th of 32 |
| 8th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 32 |
| 31st of 321438 | Elo rating | 150214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–3 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 12–3 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–10 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–4 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.