Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Adam LarssonAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Miro HeiskanenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P119:26Tyler Seguin Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Roope Hintz (8), Miro Heiskanen (11)1–2
- P14:24Wyatt Johnston Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (11), Miro Heiskanen (10)1–1
- P13:15Jaden Schwartz Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adam Larsson (3), Vince Dunn (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:15Jaden Schwartz Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adam Larsson (3), Vince Dunn (7)SEA 1 – 0 DAL · SEA 36% → 51% +15SEA 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P14:24Wyatt Johnston Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (11), Miro Heiskanen (10)SEA 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 49% → 64% +15DAL 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P119:26Tyler Seguin Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Roope Hintz (8), Miro Heiskanen (11)SEA 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 62% → 77% +15DAL 62% → 77%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 64%
- ML SEA +170 / DAL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.6%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -180
- SEA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.3 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | DAL and SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −3 | SEA: Matt Murray: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +97 Elo | DAL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 48.1%23rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15113rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 15298th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–3 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–6 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.