Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Adam ErneGoals1
- Alexander PetrovicAssists1
- Adam ErnePoints1
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals1
- Charle-Edouard D'AstousAssists1
- Anthony CirelliPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:36Anthony Cirelli Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none1–2
- P32:03Adam Erne Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Petrovic (1), Radek Faksa (3)1–1
- P215:02Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (4), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:02Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (4), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (1)DAL 0 – 1 TB · TB 55% → 76% +20TB 55% → 76%+20 pts
- P32:03Adam Erne Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Petrovic (1), Radek Faksa (3)DAL 1 – 1 TB · DAL 22% → 45% +24DAL 22% → 45%+24 pts
- OT2:36Anthony Cirelli Goal (6) Backhand, assists: noneDAL 1 – 2 TB · TB 52% → 97% +45TB 52% → 97%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML DAL +130 / TB -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- TB: Elo 54.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -140
- DAL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.5 – 3.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +7 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 47.5%24th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–324th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 32 |
| 7th of 321534 | Elo rating | 15259th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–2 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.