Seattle Kraken at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Eeli TolvanenAssists2
- Eeli TolvanenPoints3
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:57Shane Wright Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (6), Ryker Evans (1)4–3
- P319:58Chandler Stephenson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (7), Brandon Montour (6)3–3
- P35:10Jordan Kyrou Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (5), Robert Thomas (7)2–3
- P215:25Eeli Tolvanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (6), Jordan Eberle (6)2–2
- P28:28Ryker Evans Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (5), Tye Kartye (2)1–2
- P19:40Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (6), Pavel Buchnevich (5)0–2
- P15:30Dylan Holloway Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:30Dylan Holloway Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 0 – 1 STL · STL 59% → 73% +14STL 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P215:25Eeli Tolvanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (6), Jordan Eberle (6)SEA 2 – 2 STL · SEA 23% → 44% +20SEA 23% → 44%+20 pts
- P35:10Jordan Kyrou Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (5), Robert Thomas (7)SEA 2 – 3 STL · STL 55% → 80% +26STL 55% → 80%+26 pts
- P319:58Chandler Stephenson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (7), Brandon Montour (6)SEA 3 – 3 STL · SEA 0% → 50% +50SEA 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:57Shane Wright Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (6), Ryker Evans (1)SEA 4 – 3 STL · SEA 48% → 94% +46SEA 48% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML SEA +140 / STL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- STL: Elo 60.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -149
- SEA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | −7 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +75 Elo | STL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 50.2%14th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 86.1%32nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–832nd of 32 |
| 24th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 2–630th of 32 |
| 19th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 32 |
| 26th of 321473 | Elo rating | 150116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–3 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–5 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.