San Jose Sharks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Kraken- Ryan WintertonGoals1
- Shane WrightAssists1
- Ryan WintertonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:54Tyler Toffoli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (4)6–1
- P33:24Ty Dellandrea Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (3)5–1
- P31:02Will Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (3), Macklin Celebrini (13)4–1
- P211:21John Klingberg Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (8), Macklin Celebrini (12)3–1
- P118:42Ethan Cardwell Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (6), Jeff Skinner (3)2–1
- P116:30Ryan Winterton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (2), Shane Wright (4)1–1
- P11:08Macklin Celebrini Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (4), John Klingberg (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:08Macklin Celebrini Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (4), John Klingberg (3)SJ 1 – 0 SEA · SJ 40% → 55% +15SJ 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P116:30Ryan Winterton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (2), Shane Wright (4)SJ 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 41% → 58% +17SEA 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P118:42Ethan Cardwell Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (6), Jeff Skinner (3)SJ 2 – 1 SEA · SJ 42% → 59% +17SJ 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P211:21John Klingberg Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (8), Macklin Celebrini (12)SJ 3 – 1 SEA · SJ 64% → 81% +17SJ 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P31:02Will Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (3), Macklin Celebrini (13)SJ 4 – 1 SEA · SJ 88% → 96% +9SJ 88% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML SJ +140 / SEA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 68.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- SJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +138 Elo | SEA 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.1 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.3% | Shot share | 45.6%31st of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%8th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
| 5th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321386 | Elo rating | 148124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–4 | 10–2 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 4–4 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.