St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues
SabresScoring summary
- P318:58Justin Faulk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (4)3–0
- P22:42Nick Bjugstad Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (5), Mathieu Joseph (3)2–0
- P112:38Mathieu Joseph Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:38Mathieu Joseph Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 1 – 0 BUF · STL 44% → 60% +16STL 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P22:42Nick Bjugstad Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (5), Mathieu Joseph (3)STL 2 – 0 BUF · STL 63% → 78% +16STL 63% → 78%+16 pts
- P318:58Justin Faulk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (4)STL 3 – 0 BUF · STL >99% → 100% +0STL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 57%
- ML STL +125 / BUF -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 58.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -133
- STL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −6 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +56 Elo | BUF 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.2 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 47.8%24th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3285.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%6th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 5–420th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15132nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321496 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–9 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.