Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists1
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Sabres- Noah OstlundGoals1
- Noah OstlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:47Clayton Keller Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (8), Karel Vejmelka (1)2–1
- P37:50Noah Ostlund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Isak Rosen (1)1–1
- P33:58Nick Schmaltz Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (9), John Marino (5)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:58Nick Schmaltz Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (9), John Marino (5)UTA 1 – 0 BUF · UTA 53% → 78% +25UTA 53% → 78%+25 pts
- P37:50Noah Ostlund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Isak Rosen (1)UTA 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 19% → 48% +28BUF 19% → 48%+28 pts
- OT0:47Clayton Keller Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (8), Karel Vejmelka (1)UTA 2 – 1 BUF · UTA 51% → 92% +41UTA 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 55%
- ML UTA -135 / BUF +115
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 48.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -124
- BUF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.4 – 3.1 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +11 Elo | BUF 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.1% | Shot share | 48.7%19th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 7th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 5–314th of 32 |
| 20th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15133rd of 32 |
| 12th of 321510 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–0 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.
