Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Jake GuentzelAssists1
- Jake GuentzelPoints2
Mammoth- Lawson CrouseGoals1
- Ian ColeAssists2
- Ian ColePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:44Brandon Hagel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (3)4–2
- P312:06Jake Guentzel Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P32:21Kailer Yamamoto Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (5)2–2
- P22:47Anthony Cirelli Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (7), Victor Hedman (9)2–1
- P115:17Yanni Gourde Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (1), Zemgus Girgensons (1)1–1
- P15:55Lawson Crouse Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:55Lawson Crouse Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (4)TB 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 51% → 66% +15UTA 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P115:17Yanni Gourde Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (1), Zemgus Girgensons (1)TB 1 – 1 UTA · TB 33% → 49% +16TB 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P22:47Anthony Cirelli Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (7), Victor Hedman (9)TB 2 – 1 UTA · TB 49% → 67% +18TB 49% → 67%+18 pts
- P32:21Kailer Yamamoto Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (5)TB 2 – 2 UTA · UTA 26% → 51% +25UTA 26% → 51%+25 pts
- P312:06Jake Guentzel Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneTB 3 – 2 UTA · TB 50% → 84% +34TB 50% → 84%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 51%
- ML TB -105 / UTA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- UTA: Elo 56.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −20 | +2 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +45 Elo | UTA 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.93rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.7% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 17th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 20th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 32 |
| 9th of 321527 | Elo rating | 151412th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–9 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–1 UTA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.
