Anaheim Ducks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Chris KreiderGoals2
- Troy TerryAssists2
- Chris KreiderPoints2
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Miro HeiskanenAssists4
- Miro HeiskanenPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:07Mason McTavish Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (5), Cutter Gauthier (7)7–5
- P316:39Roope Hintz Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Mikko Rantanen (12), Miro Heiskanen (7)6–5
- P39:22Leo Carlsson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (12)6–4
- P31:50Mikko Rantanen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (8), Jason Robertson (10)5–4
- P30:16Chris Kreider Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Drew Helleson (5), Troy Terry (11)5–3
- P217:05Olen Zellweger Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (4), Alex Killorn (4)4–3
- P214:07Cutter Gauthier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (3)3–3
- P28:19Tyler Seguin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (5), Miro Heiskanen (6)2–3
- P22:48Ian Moore Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (5), Nikita Nesterenko (6)2–2
- P21:16Chris Kreider Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (14)1–2
- P116:18Wyatt Johnston Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (5), Jason Robertson (9)0–2
- P15:49Wyatt Johnston Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (11), Miro Heiskanen (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:19Tyler Seguin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (5), Miro Heiskanen (6)ANA 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 58% → 76% +18DAL 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P214:07Cutter Gauthier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (3)ANA 3 – 3 DAL · ANA 23% → 43% +20ANA 23% → 43%+20 pts
- P217:05Olen Zellweger Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (4), Alex Killorn (4)ANA 4 – 3 DAL · ANA 43% → 66% +23ANA 43% → 66%+23 pts
- P30:16Chris Kreider Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Drew Helleson (5), Troy Terry (11)ANA 5 – 3 DAL · ANA 68% → 87% +18ANA 68% → 87%+18 pts
- P31:50Mikko Rantanen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (8), Jason Robertson (10)ANA 5 – 4 DAL · DAL 12% → 30% +18DAL 12% → 30%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 61%
- ML ANA +145 / DAL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 62.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -154
- ANA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +88 Elo | DAL 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 65.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 6th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
| 24th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15191st of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 15328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–4 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.