Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists1
- Evan RodriguesPoints2
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals3
- Troy TerryAssists2
- Cutter GauthierPoints4
Scoring summary
- P314:47Jansen Harkins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–7
- P313:21Chris Kreider Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (5), Troy Terry (10)3–6
- P311:43Jacob Trouba Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (6), Mason McTavish (7)3–5
- P217:19Nikita Nesterenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (4), Alex Killorn (2)3–4
- P215:36Cutter Gauthier Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (5), Leo Carlsson (13)3–3
- P210:37Eetu Luostarinen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (5), Sam Bennett (2)3–2
- P25:21Evan Rodrigues Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (7), Gustav Forsling (6)2–2
- P115:17Cutter Gauthier Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (9)1–2
- P110:14Brad Marchand Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (3)1–1
- P13:09Cutter Gauthier Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:17Cutter Gauthier Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (9)FLA 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 42% → 59% +17ANA 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P25:21Evan Rodrigues Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (7), Gustav Forsling (6)FLA 2 – 2 ANA · FLA 38% → 57% +19FLA 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P210:37Eetu Luostarinen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (5), Sam Bennett (2)FLA 3 – 2 ANA · FLA 56% → 75% +19FLA 56% → 75%+19 pts
- P215:36Cutter Gauthier Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (5), Leo Carlsson (13)FLA 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 24% → 44% +21ANA 24% → 44%+21 pts
- P217:19Nikita Nesterenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (4), Alex Killorn (2)FLA 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 45% → 68% +23ANA 45% → 68%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML FLA -155 / ANA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.4%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -143
- ANA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +5 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +52 Elo | FLA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.1% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–14th of 32 |
| 29th of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 148730th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321554 | Elo rating | 146927th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–10 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–2 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.