Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Sam SteelAssists3
- Sam SteelPoints3
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Brad Marchand Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P317:19Mikko Rantanen Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Sam Steel (4), Jason Robertson (7)3–3
- P312:26Sam Bennett Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (5), Mackie Samoskevich (6)2–3
- P215:01Justin Hryckowian Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (8), Sam Steel (3)2–2
- P214:47Wyatt Johnston Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (2), Mikko Rantanen (9)1–2
- P24:02Sam Reinhart Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (4), Evan Rodrigues (4)0–2
- P21:48Brad Marchand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (3), Anton Lundell (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:48Brad Marchand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (3), Anton Lundell (6)DAL 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 55% → 72% +17FLA 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P214:47Wyatt Johnston Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (2), Mikko Rantanen (9)DAL 1 – 2 FLA · DAL 11% → 25% +14DAL 11% → 25%+14 pts
- P215:01Justin Hryckowian Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (8), Sam Steel (3)DAL 2 – 2 FLA · DAL 25% → 46% +21DAL 25% → 46%+21 pts
- P312:26Sam Bennett Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (5), Mackie Samoskevich (6)DAL 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 52% → 86% +34FLA 52% → 86%+34 pts
- P317:19Mikko Rantanen Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Sam Steel (4), Jason Robertson (7)DAL 3 – 3 FLA · DAL 4% → 49% +45DAL 4% → 49%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 56%
- ML DAL +120 / FLA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- FLA: Elo 59.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -128
- DAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.6 – 2.9 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +9 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +67 Elo | FLA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 55.0%2nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%15th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 8th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 148531st of 32 |
| 7th of 321531 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–7 | 2–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–4 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.