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Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

Final/SOESPN+, Hulu

Away

Oilers

6-5-4

3–4

at

Home

Stars

7-3-3

EDM 47%DAL 53%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN+, Hulu

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored EDM favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • SO0:00Wyatt Johnston Goal Snap Shot1–2
  • SO0:00Leon Draisaitl Goal Backhand1–2
  • SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Wrist Shot1–2
  • P312:20Miro Heiskanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (10), Wyatt Johnston (7)3–3
  • P38:37Mikko Rantanen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (6), Alexander Petrovic (2)3–2
  • P37:51Connor McDavid Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11), Andrew Mangiapane (2)3–1
  • P29:10Mikko Rantanen Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (5), Jason Robertson (8)2–1
  • P17:07Leon Draisaitl Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (5), Connor McDavid (17)2–0
  • P13:40Vasily Podkolzin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (4), Evan Bouchard (8)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:40Vasily Podkolzin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (4), Evan Bouchard (8)EDM 1 – 0 DAL · EDM 47% → 62% +15
  2. P29:10Mikko Rantanen Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (5), Jason Robertson (8)EDM 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 17% → 33% +16
  3. P37:51Connor McDavid Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11), Andrew Mangiapane (2)EDM 3 – 1 DAL · EDM 78% → 94% +16
  4. P38:37Mikko Rantanen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (6), Alexander Petrovic (2)EDM 3 – 2 DAL · DAL 5% → 21% +16
  5. P312:20Miro Heiskanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (10), Wyatt Johnston (7)EDM 3 – 3 DAL · DAL 16% → 51% +35

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 53%

Toss-upHit
EDM 47%DAL 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
DAL 53%
ML EDM +105 / DAL -125
Pre-line forecast
DAL 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 57%
Ratings vs. market
+3.7 pts
DAL: Elo 56.9%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
DAL -114
EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 2.7 – 2.8 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMDALWhy
Team rating15431529Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—EDM on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−1−4EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +49 EloDAL 56.9%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 54.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 55.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatDAL
17th of 323.1Goals scored2.826th of 32
19th of 323.1Goals allowed3.014th of 32
18th of 32−0.1Margin−0.324th of 32
5th of 3254.0%Shot share47.5%26th of 32
29th of 3288.4%Save percentage90.4%11th of 32
22nd of 324–6Last 104–622nd of 32
26th of 322–6Road vs home3–320th of 32
26th of 321490Opponent Elo15181st of 32
5th of 321543Elo rating15299th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersStars
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMDAL
Puck line3–115–7
Last 101–93–7
Favorite3–111–7
Underdog—4–0
Overs–unders7–75–7
Overs–unders, last 106–43–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 10–7 DAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.