Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mavrik BourqueGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Mavrik BourquePoints2
Predators- Nicolas HagueGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Nicolas HaguePoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:20Sam Steel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (10), Mikko Rantanen (13)5–4
- P39:33Adam Erne Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (2), Alexander Petrovic (3)4–4
- P35:11Steven Stamkos Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (5), Matthew Wood (4)3–4
- P32:20Justin Hryckowian Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (1), Mavrik Bourque (3)3–3
- P25:10Filip Forsberg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (6), Nicolas Hague (2)2–3
- P24:43Nicolas Hague Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (4), Erik Haula (6)2–2
- P20:13Roope Hintz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (9), Miro Heiskanen (9)2–1
- P117:46Luke Evangelista Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Spencer Stastney (6), Ryan O'Reilly (5)1–1
- P16:26Mavrik Bourque Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (8), Ilya Lyubushkin (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:10Filip Forsberg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (6), Nicolas Hague (2)DAL 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 43% → 62% +19NSH 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P32:20Justin Hryckowian Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (1), Mavrik Bourque (3)DAL 3 – 3 NSH · DAL 29% → 55% +26DAL 29% → 55%+26 pts
- P35:11Steven Stamkos Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (5), Matthew Wood (4)DAL 3 – 4 NSH · NSH 46% → 73% +28NSH 46% → 73%+28 pts
- P39:33Adam Erne Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (2), Alexander Petrovic (3)DAL 4 – 4 NSH · DAL 22% → 54% +32DAL 22% → 54%+32 pts
- P310:20Sam Steel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (10), Mikko Rantanen (13)DAL 5 – 4 NSH · DAL 54% → 84% +31DAL 54% → 84%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML DAL -155 / NSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 57.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -143
- NSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 2.5 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −8 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +50 Elo | DAL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.930th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 48.3%22nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%16th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–730th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–625th of 32 |
| 1st of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 9th of 321527 | Elo rating | 144830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–9 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–4 NSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.