Philadelphia Flyers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Cam YorkAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:47Travis Konecny Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (4), Cam York (8)3–1
- P217:37Noah Cates Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (5), Travis Konecny (7)2–1
- P24:43Matvei Michkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (7), Sean Couturier (8)1–1
- P11:44Ryan O'Reilly Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Filip Forsberg (6), Nick Blankenburg (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:44Ryan O'Reilly Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Filip Forsberg (6), Nick Blankenburg (3)PHI 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 53% → 67% +14NSH 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P24:43Matvei Michkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (7), Sean Couturier (8)PHI 1 – 1 NSH · PHI 30% → 48% +18PHI 30% → 48%+18 pts
- P217:37Noah Cates Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (5), Travis Konecny (7)PHI 2 – 1 NSH · PHI 48% → 71% +23PHI 48% → 71%+23 pts
- P318:47Travis Konecny Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (4), Cam York (8)PHI 3 – 1 NSH · PHI >99% → >99% +1PHI >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 53%
- ML PHI +105 / NSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NSH: Elo 52.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NSH -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.7 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | 0 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +16 Elo | NSH 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.829th of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 48.3%21st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 4–525th of 32 |
| 7th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 32 |
| 29th of 321463 | Elo rating | 145230th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.