Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Eeli TolvanenAssists2
- Eeli TolvanenPoints2
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists2
- Lucas RaymondPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:30Dylan Larkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (16), Alex DeBrincat (14)2–4
- P210:56Emmitt Finnie Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nate Danielson (1), Andrew Copp (7)2–3
- P27:26Ryker Evans Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (8), Shane Wright (5)2–2
- P22:04Nate Danielson Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mason Appleton (5), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (4)1–2
- P21:19Lucas Raymond Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (13), Moritz Seider (10)1–1
- P119:02Jordan Eberle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (11), Eeli Tolvanen (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:02Jordan Eberle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (11), Eeli Tolvanen (7)SEA 1 – 0 DET · SEA 41% → 59% +17SEA 41% → 59%+17 pts
- P21:19Lucas Raymond Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (13), Moritz Seider (10)SEA 1 – 1 DET · DET 41% → 59% +18DET 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P22:04Nate Danielson Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mason Appleton (5), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (4)SEA 1 – 2 DET · DET 59% → 75% +16DET 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P27:26Ryker Evans Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (8), Shane Wright (5)SEA 2 – 2 DET · SEA 24% → 42% +18SEA 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P210:56Emmitt Finnie Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nate Danielson (1), Andrew Copp (7)SEA 2 – 3 DET · DET 57% → 76% +19DET 57% → 76%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 61%
- ML SEA +145 / DET -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- DET: Elo 57.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -154
- SEA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +54 Elo | DET 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.122nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 53.0%7th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.5%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 6–410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 32 |
| 25th of 321479 | Elo rating | 149916th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–4 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.