Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Drew HellesonAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Lucas RaymondAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:59Alex DeBrincat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (11)3–6
- P35:06Dylan Larkin Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (11), Alex DeBrincat (12)3–5
- P34:33Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ian Moore (1), Ryan Strome (1)3–4
- P30:50Alex DeBrincat Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (6), Patrick Kane (5)2–4
- P215:33Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (3), Jonatan Berggren (4)2–3
- P214:54Chris Kreider Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (7), Drew Helleson (7)2–2
- P212:42Michael Rasmussen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (6), Jonatan Berggren (3)1–2
- P27:35Cutter Gauthier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (6), Jacob Trouba (8)1–1
- P25:57Moritz Seider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (10), Patrick Kane (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:57Moritz Seider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (10), Patrick Kane (4)ANA 0 – 1 DET · DET 54% → 72% +18DET 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P27:35Cutter Gauthier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (6), Jacob Trouba (8)ANA 1 – 1 DET · ANA 28% → 46% +18ANA 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P212:42Michael Rasmussen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (6), Jonatan Berggren (3)ANA 1 – 2 DET · DET 54% → 74% +20DET 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P214:54Chris Kreider Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (7), Drew Helleson (7)ANA 2 – 2 DET · ANA 26% → 47% +21ANA 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P215:33Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (3), Jonatan Berggren (4)ANA 2 – 3 DET · DET 53% → 74% +21DET 53% → 74%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML ANA +115 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 55.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- ANA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −4 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +35 Elo | DET 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 51.9%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Road vs home | 5–38th of 32 |
| 6th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321486 | Elo rating | 149518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–6 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.