Winnipeg Jets at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints1
Ducks- Beckett SenneckeGoals2
- Cutter GauthierAssists2
- Leo CarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:47Leo Carlsson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (3), Jackson LaCombe (6)1–4
- P211:48Beckett Sennecke Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (9), Mason McTavish (8)1–3
- P24:22Kyle Connor Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (11), Mark Scheifele (12)1–2
- P119:03Leo Carlsson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (14), Chris Kreider (2)0–2
- P17:18Beckett Sennecke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (8), Drew Helleson (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:18Beckett Sennecke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (8), Drew Helleson (6)WPG 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 44% → 60% +15ANA 44% → 60%+15 pts
- P119:03Leo Carlsson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (14), Chris Kreider (2)WPG 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 62% → 77% +15ANA 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P24:22Kyle Connor Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (11), Mark Scheifele (12)WPG 1 – 2 ANA · WPG 20% → 36% +16WPG 20% → 36%+16 pts
- P211:48Beckett Sennecke Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (9), Mason McTavish (8)WPG 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 66% → 83% +17ANA 66% → 83%+17 pts
- P32:47Leo Carlsson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (3), Jackson LaCombe (6)WPG 1 – 4 ANA · ANA 90% → 98% +8ANA 90% → 98%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 56%
- ML WPG -140 / ANA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- WPG: Elo 57.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -128
- ANA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +4 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +52 Elo | WPG 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 4.21st of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +1.03rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 50.3%13th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 324–2 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321477 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321559 | Elo rating | 148424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–2 ANA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.