Winnipeg Jets at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets
Kings- Drew DoughtyGoals1
- Joel ArmiaAssists1
- Drew DoughtyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:06Drew Doughty Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P315:00Kevin Fiala Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (3), Quinton Byfield (9)0–2
- P117:09Adrian Kempe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (5), Mikey Anderson (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:09Adrian Kempe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (5), Mikey Anderson (1)WPG 0 – 1 LA · LA 53% → 69% +16LA 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P315:00Kevin Fiala Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (3), Quinton Byfield (9)WPG 0 – 2 LA · LA 90% → >99% +9LA 90% → >99%+9 pts
- P319:06Drew Doughty Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 0 – 3 LA · LA >99% → 100% +0LA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 53%
- ML WPG +105 / LA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- LA: Elo 46.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -114
- WPG +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.7 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +21 Elo | WPG 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 0–531st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 1st of 321567 | Elo rating | 151611th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | — | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–4 LA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.