Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals2
- Olen ZellwegerAssists2
- Leo CarlssonPoints3
Golden Knights- Kaedan KorczakGoals1
- William KarlssonAssists1
- Brett HowdenPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:28Jacob Trouba Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Leo Carlsson (15)4–3
- P314:53Kaedan Korczak Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (9), Mitch Marner (14)3–3
- P33:56Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (14)3–2
- P216:50Leo Carlsson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (4)3–1
- P210:39Leo Carlsson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (13)2–1
- P115:49Frank Vatrano Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Olen Zellweger (3), Jacob Trouba (6)1–1
- P15:47Brett Howden Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (3), Noah Hanifin (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:39Leo Carlsson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (13)ANA 2 – 1 VGK · ANA 38% → 59% +21ANA 38% → 59%+21 pts
- P216:50Leo Carlsson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (4)ANA 3 – 1 VGK · ANA 62% → 82% +19ANA 62% → 82%+19 pts
- P33:56Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (14)ANA 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 12% → 32% +20VGK 12% → 32%+20 pts
- P314:53Kaedan Korczak Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (9), Mitch Marner (14)ANA 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 13% → 55% +42VGK 13% → 55%+42 pts
- OT4:28Jacob Trouba Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Leo Carlsson (15)ANA 4 – 3 VGK · ANA 48% → >99% +52ANA 48% → >99%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 67%
- ML ANA +190 / VGK -225
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.7%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- VGK -201
- ANA +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.8 – 3.7 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −11 | ANA: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +83 Elo | VGK 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 65.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.2 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 52.9%7th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.4%16th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–3 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 32 |
| 24th of 321481 | Elo rating | 15347th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–5 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–5 VGK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.