Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Dominic JamesAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals2
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:13Brandon Hagel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (7)6–3
- P314:13Nikita Kucherov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (11), Brandon Hagel (6)5–3
- P34:12Brandon Hagel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic James (2)4–3
- P33:37Mitch Marner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (13), Ivan Barbashev (8)3–3
- P32:47Nikita Kucherov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (4), Jake Guentzel (8)3–2
- P23:28Dominic James Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (3), J.J. Moser (2)2–2
- P20:36Gage Goncalves Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic James (1)1–2
- P115:53Ivan Barbashev Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (13), Jack Eichel (12)0–2
- P17:25Ivan Barbashev Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Noah Hanifin (1), Mitch Marner (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:25Ivan Barbashev Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Noah Hanifin (1), Mitch Marner (12)TB 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 52% → 67% +15VGK 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P23:28Dominic James Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (3), J.J. Moser (2)TB 2 – 2 VGK · TB 30% → 48% +18TB 30% → 48%+18 pts
- P32:47Nikita Kucherov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (4), Jake Guentzel (8)TB 3 – 2 VGK · TB 49% → 74% +25TB 49% → 74%+25 pts
- P33:37Mitch Marner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (13), Ivan Barbashev (8)TB 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 25% → 51% +26VGK 25% → 51%+26 pts
- P34:12Brandon Hagel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic James (2)TB 4 – 3 VGK · TB 49% → 75% +26TB 49% → 75%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 52%
- ML TB +100 / VGK -120
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 55.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.7 – 2.8 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Carl Lindbom: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +39 Elo | VGK 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.2% | Shot share | 52.8%7th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 32 |
| 8th of 321529 | Elo rating | 15396th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–9 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–1 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.