Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Victor HedmanAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Avalanche- Ross ColtonGoals1
- Gabriel LandeskogAssists1
- Ross ColtonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:32Brayden Point Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (2), Victor Hedman (10)2–3
- P25:21Ross Colton Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Sam Malinski (5), Brock Nelson (2)1–3
- P24:08Victor Olofsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (4), Gabriel Landeskog (4)1–2
- P113:51Victor Olofsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (10), Martin Necas (9)1–1
- P11:37Nikita Kucherov Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:37Nikita Kucherov Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: noneTB 1 – 0 COL · TB 43% → 58% +15TB 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P113:51Victor Olofsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (10), Martin Necas (9)TB 1 – 1 COL · COL 40% → 56% +16COL 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P24:08Victor Olofsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (4), Gabriel Landeskog (4)TB 1 – 2 COL · COL 56% → 73% +17COL 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P25:21Ross Colton Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Sam Malinski (5), Brock Nelson (2)TB 1 – 3 COL · COL 73% → 86% +13COL 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P33:32Brayden Point Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (2), Victor Hedman (10)TB 2 – 3 COL · TB 7% → 21% +15TB 7% → 21%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML TB +125 / COL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- COL: Elo 57.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -133
- TB +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +4 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +53 Elo | COL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.93rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 57.5%1st of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 13th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 8th of 321531 | Elo rating | 15552nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–9 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.