Winnipeg Jets at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Josh MorrisseyGoals1
- Nino NiederreiterAssists1
- Josh MorrisseyPoints1
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:39Will Smith Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (14), Philipp Kurashev (5)1–2
- P113:46Macklin Celebrini Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (5)1–1
- P112:34Josh Morrissey Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:34Josh Morrissey Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (6)WPG 1 – 0 SJ · WPG 62% → 76% +14WPG 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P113:46Macklin Celebrini Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (5)WPG 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 24% → 39% +15SJ 24% → 39%+15 pts
- P315:39Will Smith Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (14), Philipp Kurashev (5)WPG 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 46% → 90% +43SJ 46% → 90%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 63%
- ML WPG -190 / SJ +160
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 67.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -170
- SJ +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.6 – 2.9 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +7 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +130 Elo | WPG 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.930th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 44.2%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 1st of 324–1 | Road vs home | 2–629th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 32 |
| 1st of 321562 | Elo rating | 139532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–7 | 10–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 5–1 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.