Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Jacob TroubaAssists1
- Leo CarlssonPoints1
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:39Parker Kelly Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (18), Brock Nelson (3)1–4
- P37:02Martin Necas Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (10), Nathan MacKinnon (17)1–3
- P211:37Gabriel Landeskog Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (7), Sam Malinski (7)1–2
- P118:16Leo Carlsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (7), Troy Terry (15)1–1
- P10:28Artturi Lehkonen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (16), Cale Makar (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:28Artturi Lehkonen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (16), Cale Makar (17)ANA 0 – 1 COL · COL 68% → 80% +12COL 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P118:16Leo Carlsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (7), Troy Terry (15)ANA 1 – 1 COL · ANA 20% → 35% +14ANA 20% → 35%+14 pts
- P211:37Gabriel Landeskog Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (7), Sam Malinski (7)ANA 1 – 2 COL · COL 63% → 80% +18COL 63% → 80%+18 pts
- P37:02Martin Necas Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (10), Nathan MacKinnon (17)ANA 1 – 3 COL · COL 84% → 96% +12COL 84% → 96%+12 pts
- P317:39Parker Kelly Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (18), Brock Nelson (3)ANA 1 – 4 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 68%
- ML ANA +200 / COL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- COL: Elo 65.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -212
- ANA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.7 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +113 Elo | COL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 71.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.2 | Goals scored | 4.02nd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | +1.41st of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 57.0%1st of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%8th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326–3 | Road vs home | 4–27th of 32 |
| 11th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 32 |
| 21st of 321489 | Elo rating | 15661st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–5 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 10–0 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–5 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.