Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints5
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:08Gavin Brindley Goal (3) Poke, assists: Cale Makar (16), Nathan MacKinnon (15)5–4
- P316:59Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (4), Quinn Hughes (9)4–4
- P39:47Artturi Lehkonen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (10), Nathan MacKinnon (14)4–3
- P37:26Drew O'Connor Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none3–3
- P30:28Artturi Lehkonen Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (7), Nathan MacKinnon (13)3–2
- P21:44Kiefer Sherwood Goal (10) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P111:47Linus Karlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (9), Evander Kane (6)2–1
- P18:10Nathan MacKinnon Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (9), Valeri Nichushkin (6)2–0
- P16:41Nathan MacKinnon Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (5), Cale Makar (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P30:28Artturi Lehkonen Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (7), Nathan MacKinnon (13)COL 3 – 2 VAN · COL 59% → 81% +22COL 59% → 81%+22 pts
- P37:26Drew O'Connor Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneCOL 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 16% → 43% +26VAN 16% → 43%+26 pts
- P39:47Artturi Lehkonen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (10), Nathan MacKinnon (14)COL 4 – 3 VAN · COL 56% → 85% +29COL 56% → 85%+29 pts
- P316:59Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (4), Quinn Hughes (9)COL 4 – 4 VAN · VAN 4% → 47% +42VAN 4% → 47%+42 pts
- OT1:08Gavin Brindley Goal (3) Poke, assists: Cale Makar (16), Nathan MacKinnon (15)COL 5 – 4 VAN · COL 54% → 94% +40COL 54% → 94%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 65%
- ML COL -210 / VAN +175
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- COL: Elo 56.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -186
- VAN +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | VAN and COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −9 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +43 Elo | COL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.4 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.6% | Shot share | 47.2%30th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 8th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 3–426th of 32 |
| 9th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149027th of 32 |
| 1st of 321564 | Elo rating | 148822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–7 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–3 VAN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.