Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Devon ToewsAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Connor McDavidPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:28Jack Drury Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (6), Parker Kelly (3)9–1
- P35:02Nathan MacKinnon Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (5)8–1
- P30:24Nathan MacKinnon Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (9), Devon Toews (6)7–1
- P214:38Parker Kelly Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none6–1
- P211:30Connor McDavid Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (8)5–1
- P29:34Parker Kelly Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Gavin Brindley (2), Zakhar Bardakov (3)5–0
- P24:45Jack Drury Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (6), Victor Olofsson (8)4–0
- P22:38Gavin Brindley Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Sam Malinski (6), Zakhar Bardakov (2)3–0
- P114:35Cale Makar Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (5), Nathan MacKinnon (12)2–0
- P113:29Cale Makar Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (4), Nathan MacKinnon (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:29Cale Makar Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (4), Nathan MacKinnon (11)COL 1 – 0 EDM · COL 53% → 69% +16COL 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P114:35Cale Makar Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (5), Nathan MacKinnon (12)COL 2 – 0 EDM · COL 69% → 82% +13COL 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P22:38Gavin Brindley Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Sam Malinski (6), Zakhar Bardakov (2)COL 3 – 0 EDM · COL 84% → 93% +9COL 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P24:45Jack Drury Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (6), Victor Olofsson (8)COL 4 – 0 EDM · COL 93% → 98% +4COL 93% → 98%+4 pts
- P29:34Parker Kelly Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Gavin Brindley (2), Zakhar Bardakov (3)COL 5 – 0 EDM · COL 98% → >99% +1COL 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 53%
- ML COL -125 / EDM +105
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- COL: Elo 48.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -114
- EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +13 Elo | EDM 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.5% | Shot share | 53.7%5th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–624th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
| 12th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321557 | Elo rating | 15415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–7 | 4–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–3 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.