Columbus Blue Jackets at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals2
- Dmitri VoronkovAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints3
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorGoals1
- Drew O'ConnorAssists1
- Drew O'ConnorPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:15Brock Boeser Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (1), Lukas Reichel (3)3–4
- P39:47Kirill Marchenko Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (7), Adam Fantilli (6)3–3
- P36:17Conor Garland Goal (4) Poke, assists: Tyler Myers (3), Elias Pettersson (8)2–3
- P219:03Drew O'Connor Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (8), Filip Hronek (8)2–2
- P213:02Dmitri Voronkov Goal (6) Poke, assists: Kirill Marchenko (8), Adam Fantilli (5)2–1
- P26:46Kirill Marchenko Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (6), Denton Mateychuk (3)1–1
- P25:28Jake DeBrusk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (4), Aatu Raty (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:02Dmitri Voronkov Goal (6) Poke, assists: Kirill Marchenko (8), Adam Fantilli (5)CBJ 2 – 1 VAN · CBJ 50% → 71% +21CBJ 50% → 71%+21 pts
- P219:03Drew O'Connor Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (8), Filip Hronek (8)CBJ 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 27% → 50% +23VAN 27% → 50%+23 pts
- P36:17Conor Garland Goal (4) Poke, assists: Tyler Myers (3), Elias Pettersson (8)CBJ 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 50% → 78% +28VAN 50% → 78%+28 pts
- P39:47Kirill Marchenko Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (7), Adam Fantilli (6)CBJ 3 – 3 VAN · CBJ 19% → 50% +31CBJ 19% → 50%+31 pts
- P314:15Brock Boeser Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (1), Lukas Reichel (3)CBJ 3 – 4 VAN · VAN 50% → 88% +38VAN 50% → 88%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 50%
- ML CBJ -110 / VAN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- VAN: Elo 53.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- VAN -100
- CBJ -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.3 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −10 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +24 Elo | VAN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 47.5%29th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–624th of 32 |
| 7th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 2–427th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 148928th of 32 |
| 19th of 321497 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–5 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–2 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.