Columbus Blue Jackets at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists1
- Adam FantilliPoints1
Kraken- Ryan WintertonGoals1
- Jamie OleksiakAssists1
- Ryan WintertonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Charlie Coyle Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Eeli Tolvanen Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Kirill Marchenko Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P218:22Adam Fantilli Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (10), Sean Monahan (6)1–1
- P116:43Ryan Winterton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (3), Jamie Oleksiak (1)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:43Ryan Winterton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (3), Jamie Oleksiak (1)CBJ 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 52% → 68% +16SEA 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P218:22Adam Fantilli Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (10), Sean Monahan (6)CBJ 1 – 1 SEA · CBJ 26% → 49% +23CBJ 26% → 49%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML CBJ +100 / SEA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- CBJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −5 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · SEA: Matt Murray: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +34 Elo | SEA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 48.0%23rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 20th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 32 |
| 12th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 19th of 321493 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–6 | 12–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–3 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.