Columbus Blue Jackets at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Adam FantilliAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints2
Oilers- Jake WalmanGoals2
- Jake WalmanAssists1
- Jake WalmanPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:56Jack Roslovic Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (7)4–5
- P319:02Jake Walman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–4
- P313:39Connor McDavid Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (9)4–3
- P34:19Adam Fantilli Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (9)4–2
- P30:58Connor McDavid Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (6)3–2
- P218:02Boone Jenner Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (3), Zach Werenski (7)3–1
- P21:39Sean Monahan Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kent Johnson (3), Boone Jenner (7)2–1
- P117:28Jake Walman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (5), Jack Roslovic (6)1–1
- P111:42Ivan Provorov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (3), Adam Fantilli (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:02Boone Jenner Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (3), Zach Werenski (7)CBJ 3 – 1 EDM · CBJ 66% → 85% +19CBJ 66% → 85%+19 pts
- P30:58Connor McDavid Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (6)CBJ 3 – 2 EDM · EDM 13% → 32% +19EDM 13% → 32%+19 pts
- P34:19Adam Fantilli Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (9)CBJ 4 – 2 EDM · CBJ 71% → 90% +19CBJ 71% → 90%+19 pts
- P319:02Jake Walman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 4 – 4 EDM · EDM <1% → 52% +51EDM <1% → 52%+51 pts
- OT0:56Jack Roslovic Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (7)CBJ 4 – 5 EDM · EDM 53% → 93% +40EDM 53% → 93%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML CBJ +155 / EDM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 58.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -166
- CBJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −6 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +57 Elo | EDM 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 61.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 52.8%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 87.2%30th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 10th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 32 |
| 19th of 321495 | Elo rating | 15346th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–6 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–2 EDM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.