San Jose Sharks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Alexander WennbergPoints1
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals2
- Chandler StephensonAssists3
- Chandler StephensonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:31Jaden Schwartz Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (3), Chandler Stephenson (8)1–4
- P216:43Eeli Tolvanen Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (7), Jamie Oleksiak (3)1–3
- P216:05Adam Larsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (7), Matty Beniers (10)1–2
- P119:42Alexander Wennberg Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Macklin Celebrini (17), William Eklund (7)1–1
- P18:14Jaden Schwartz Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Chandler Stephenson (6), Jamie Oleksiak (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:14Jaden Schwartz Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Chandler Stephenson (6), Jamie Oleksiak (2)SJ 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 57% → 72% +14SEA 57% → 72%+14 pts
- P119:42Alexander Wennberg Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Macklin Celebrini (17), William Eklund (7)SJ 1 – 1 SEA · SJ 27% → 43% +16SJ 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P216:05Adam Larsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (7), Matty Beniers (10)SJ 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 55% → 76% +21SEA 55% → 76%+21 pts
- P216:43Eeli Tolvanen Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (7), Jamie Oleksiak (3)SJ 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 76% → 90% +14SEA 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P316:31Jaden Schwartz Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (3), Chandler Stephenson (8)SJ 1 – 4 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SJ +130 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 64.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -138
- SJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +1 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · SEA: Matt Murray: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +102 Elo | SEA 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.224th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.0% | Shot share | 47.2%27th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 12th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 5–413th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321404 | Elo rating | 147626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–5 | 13–4 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 5–4 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.