San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Collin GrafGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:41Collin Graf Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (16), Sam Dickinson (1)2–1
- P311:57Will Smith Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (15), Tyler Toffoli (6)1–1
- P25:02Matt Boldy Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (2), Zeev Buium (7)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:02Matt Boldy Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (2), Zeev Buium (7)SJ 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 61% → 78% +17MIN 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P311:57Will Smith Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (15), Tyler Toffoli (6)SJ 1 – 1 MIN · SJ 13% → 45% +32SJ 13% → 45%+32 pts
- OT2:41Collin Graf Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (16), Sam Dickinson (1)SJ 2 – 1 MIN · SJ 47% → 96% +49SJ 47% → 96%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML SJ +170 / MIN -200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 66.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -180
- SJ +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +116 Elo | MIN 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 69.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.9% | Shot share | 48.4%21st of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–524th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321404 | Elo rating | 148922nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–4 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–6 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.