Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals1
- Eetu LuostarinenAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Sharks- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- Will SmithAssists2
- Will SmithPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:09Alexander Wennberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (4), Will Smith (10)1–3
- P23:34Brad Marchand Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (7), Eetu Luostarinen (5)1–2
- P23:06Adam Gaudette Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (11), Timothy Liljegren (4)0–2
- P117:25Macklin Celebrini Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (9), Vincent Desharnais (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:25Macklin Celebrini Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (9), Vincent Desharnais (2)FLA 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 34% → 51% +17SJ 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P23:06Adam Gaudette Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (11), Timothy Liljegren (4)FLA 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 53% → 71% +18SJ 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P23:34Brad Marchand Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (7), Eetu Luostarinen (5)FLA 1 – 2 SJ · FLA 29% → 47% +18FLA 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P319:09Alexander Wennberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (4), Will Smith (10)FLA 1 – 3 SJ · SJ >99% → >99% +0SJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 69%
- ML FLA -250 / SJ +210
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 66.2%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- FLA -221
- SJ +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.8 – 2.7 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −31 | +1 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.79 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +117 Elo | FLA 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 65.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 44.4%32nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 24th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 3–627th of 32 |
| 27th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321552 | Elo rating | 139832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–11 | 11–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–0 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.