Florida Panthers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals2
- Niko MikkolaAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:36Brad Marchand Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (2)5–2
- P38:41Anton Lundell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (4)4–2
- P211:45Sam Reinhart Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (5), Niko Mikkola (1)3–2
- P117:30Brad Marchand Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (3)2–2
- P111:00Corey Perry Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (2), Joel Edmundson (6)1–2
- P19:23Anze Kopitar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (11), Quinton Byfield (10)1–1
- P12:06Sam Bennett Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (4), Jesper Boqvist (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:23Anze Kopitar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (11), Quinton Byfield (10)FLA 1 – 1 LA · LA 35% → 50% +15LA 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P111:00Corey Perry Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (2), Joel Edmundson (6)FLA 1 – 2 LA · LA 50% → 66% +16LA 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P117:30Brad Marchand Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (3)FLA 2 – 2 LA · FLA 33% → 50% +17FLA 33% → 50%+17 pts
- P211:45Sam Reinhart Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (5), Niko Mikkola (1)FLA 3 – 2 LA · FLA 50% → 70% +20FLA 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P38:41Anton Lundell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (4)FLA 4 – 2 LA · FLA 80% → 95% +15FLA 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 50%
- ML FLA -110 / LA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- LA: Elo 49.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LA -100
- FLA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −11 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +7 Elo | FLA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 51.8%10th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%15th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 1–531st of 32 |
| 28th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 32 |
| 4th of 321548 | Elo rating | 152110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–11 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–10 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–2 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.