Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:10Kirill Kaprizov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (9), Matt Boldy (9)0–2
- P213:47Matt Boldy Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (9), Joel Eriksson Ek (8)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:47Matt Boldy Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (9), Joel Eriksson Ek (8)CGY 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 54% → 74% +20MIN 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P319:10Kirill Kaprizov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (9), Matt Boldy (9)CGY 0 – 2 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 56%
- ML CGY +120 / MIN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -128
- CGY +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.1 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −23 | −7 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.57 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +68 Elo | MIN 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.1 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.2% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 29th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 32 |
| 9th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321469 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 4–2 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.