San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:55Samuel Honzek Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (6)0–2
- P25:46Blake Coleman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:46Blake Coleman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 57% → 74% +18CGY 57% → 74%+18 pts
- P319:55Samuel Honzek Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (6)SJ 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 100% → 100% +0CGY 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 59%
- ML SJ +135 / CGY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- CGY: Elo 62.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CGY -145
- SJ +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 3.0 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +6 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +89 Elo | CGY 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 64.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.132nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.1 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.6% | Shot share | 49.7%16th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 8th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 2–530th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321407 | Elo rating | 146428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–4 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 13–4 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–6 CGY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.