Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints1
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Oskar SundqvistAssists2
- Oskar SundqvistPoints2
Scoring summary
- P214:29Rasmus Andersson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (5)2–3
- P214:04Matt Coronato Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Pachal (2)1–3
- P27:20Nathan Walker Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (1), Oskar Sundqvist (7)0–3
- P113:43Matthew Kessel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (6)0–2
- P110:59Dylan Holloway Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Justin Faulk (6), Pius Suter (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:59Dylan Holloway Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Justin Faulk (6), Pius Suter (5)CGY 0 – 1 STL · STL 55% → 70% +15STL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P113:43Matthew Kessel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (6)CGY 0 – 2 STL · STL 70% → 83% +13STL 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P27:20Nathan Walker Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (1), Oskar Sundqvist (7)CGY 0 – 3 STL · STL 86% → 94% +8STL 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P214:04Matt Coronato Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Pachal (2)CGY 1 – 3 STL · CGY 4% → 12% +8CGY 4% → 12%+8 pts
- P214:29Rasmus Andersson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (5)CGY 2 – 3 STL · CGY 11% → 26% +15CGY 11% → 26%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML CGY +115 / STL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- STL: Elo 58.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +62 Elo | STL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.1 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.1 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 49.5%17th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 86.2%32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Road vs home | 2–730th of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 32 |
| 28th of 321466 | Elo rating | 149816th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–7 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.