Winnipeg Jets at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals2
- Vince DunnAssists2
- Vince DunnPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:25Jordan Eberle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (9), Mason Marchment (6)3–5
- P37:21Jordan Eberle Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Matty Beniers (8), Mason Marchment (5)3–4
- P34:11Eeli Tolvanen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (9), Chandler Stephenson (5)3–3
- P218:50Kyle Connor Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (14), Mark Scheifele (13)3–2
- P27:27Vince Dunn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (2), Adam Larsson (4)2–2
- P23:18Mark Scheifele Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (3)2–1
- P115:15Kaapo Kakko Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jaden Schwartz (7), Vince Dunn (8)1–1
- P110:17Alex Iafallo Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Adam Lowry (2), Dylan DeMelo (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:18Mark Scheifele Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (3)WPG 2 – 1 SEA · WPG 56% → 73% +17WPG 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P27:27Vince Dunn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (2), Adam Larsson (4)WPG 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 27% → 45% +18SEA 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P218:50Kyle Connor Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (14), Mark Scheifele (13)WPG 3 – 2 SEA · WPG 54% → 76% +22WPG 54% → 76%+22 pts
- P34:11Eeli Tolvanen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (9), Chandler Stephenson (5)WPG 3 – 3 SEA · SEA 21% → 46% +25SEA 21% → 46%+25 pts
- P37:21Jordan Eberle Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Matty Beniers (8), Mason Marchment (5)WPG 3 – 4 SEA · SEA 47% → 76% +29SEA 47% → 76%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 57%
- ML WPG -145 / SEA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 59.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -133
- SEA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 2.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −14 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +69 Elo | WPG 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 47.5%28th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%11th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 5th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321557 | Elo rating | 147226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 12–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 5–2 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.