Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Josh MorrisseyGoals1
- Josh MorrisseyAssists2
- Josh MorrisseyPoints3
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:12Alex Iafallo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (7), Logan Stanley (5)5–3
- P318:30Brock Boeser Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (10), Quinn Hughes (12)4–3
- P30:48Gabriel Vilardi Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (10), Josh Morrissey (13)4–2
- P114:53Nino Niederreiter Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Adam Lowry (1), Alex Iafallo (4)3–2
- P114:38Josh Morrissey Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P111:58Jake DeBrusk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (11), Elias Pettersson (9)1–2
- P110:21Kiefer Sherwood Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (10)1–1
- P14:57Jonathan Toews Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Josh Morrissey (12), Cole Perfetti (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:21Kiefer Sherwood Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (10)WPG 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 33% → 48% +15VAN 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P111:58Jake DeBrusk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (11), Elias Pettersson (9)WPG 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 48% → 64% +16VAN 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P114:38Josh Morrissey Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: noneWPG 2 – 2 VAN · WPG 35% → 52% +16WPG 35% → 52%+16 pts
- P114:53Nino Niederreiter Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Adam Lowry (1), Alex Iafallo (4)WPG 3 – 2 VAN · WPG 52% → 68% +16WPG 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P30:48Gabriel Vilardi Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (10), Josh Morrissey (13)WPG 4 – 2 VAN · WPG 75% → 91% +16WPG 75% → 91%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML WPG -120 / VAN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 54.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -109
- VAN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +32 Elo | WPG 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 47.4%30th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 8th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321554 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–9 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–2 VAN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.