Detroit Red Wings at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Lucas RaymondAssists1
- Lucas RaymondPoints2
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Will CuylleAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:13Lucas Raymond Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (12), Moritz Seider (9)2–1
- P211:59Mika Zibanejad Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (5), Artemi Panarin (13)1–1
- P29:30Alex DeBrincat Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (15), Patrick Kane (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:30Alex DeBrincat Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (15), Patrick Kane (6)DET 1 – 0 NYR · DET 46% → 66% +20DET 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P211:59Mika Zibanejad Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (5), Artemi Panarin (13)DET 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 33% → 54% +21NYR 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P316:13Lucas Raymond Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (12), Moritz Seider (9)DET 2 – 1 NYR · DET 49% → 92% +44DET 49% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 55%
- ML DET +115 / NYR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- NYR: Elo 57.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.6 – 2.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYR and DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +49 Elo | NYR 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 12th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 1–732nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 32 |
| 16th of 321496 | Elo rating | 151312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–8 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–7 NYR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.