New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals2
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Vincent TrocheckPoints2
Lightning- Scott SabourinGoals1
- JJ MoserAssists1
- Zemgus GirgensonsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:49Will Cuylle Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (12)7–3
- P35:03Vincent Trocheck Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (3), Artemi Panarin (11)6–3
- P218:19Vincent Trocheck Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (10), Vladislav Gavrikov (4)5–3
- P117:32Jake Guentzel Goal (7) Backhand, assists: J.J. Moser (3)4–3
- P116:20Will Borgen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P113:59Zemgus Girgensons Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (2), Oliver Bjorkstrand (5)3–2
- P17:08Alexis Lafrenière Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (9), Carson Soucy (2)3–1
- P16:04Scott Sabourin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Douglas (1), Jack Finley (1)2–1
- P13:31J.T. Miller Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Mika Zibanejad (5)2–0
- P11:09Will Cuylle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (11), Artemi Panarin (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:09Will Cuylle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (11), Artemi Panarin (8)NYR 1 – 0 TB · NYR 46% → 60% +15NYR 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P113:59Zemgus Girgensons Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (2), Oliver Bjorkstrand (5)NYR 3 – 2 TB · TB 23% → 37% +14TB 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P116:20Will Borgen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 4 – 2 TB · NYR 63% → 78% +15NYR 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P117:32Jake Guentzel Goal (7) Backhand, assists: J.J. Moser (3)NYR 4 – 3 TB · TB 22% → 37% +15TB 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P218:19Vincent Trocheck Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (10), Vladislav Gavrikov (4)NYR 5 – 3 TB · NYR 71% → 87% +17NYR 71% → 87%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML NYR +110 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- TB: Elo 60.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.6 – 2.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +7 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +76 Elo | TB 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 47.5%29th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%7th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 1st of 327–2 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 32 |
| 28th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 32 |
| 13th of 321503 | Elo rating | 15375th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–8 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–3 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.