Nashville Predators at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Matthew WoodGoals3
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Matthew WoodPoints3
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:15Matthew Wood Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (7), Ryan O'Reilly (7)3–6
- P313:30Artemi Panarin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P312:48Matthew Wood Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (8), Erik Haula (7)2–5
- P219:50Will Cuylle Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Laba (3), Alexis Lafrenière (8)1–5
- P27:51Artemi Panarin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (7), Urho Vaakanainen (2)1–4
- P21:23Alexis Lafrenière Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Gabe Perreault (1), Vincent Trocheck (3)1–3
- P118:07Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (2), Adam Fox (10)1–2
- P116:16Matthew Wood Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (6), Brady Skjei (5)1–1
- P110:39Mika Zibanejad Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (9), Vladislav Gavrikov (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:39Mika Zibanejad Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (9), Vladislav Gavrikov (3)NSH 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 62% → 76% +14NYR 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P116:16Matthew Wood Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (6), Brady Skjei (5)NSH 1 – 1 NYR · NSH 23% → 38% +15NSH 23% → 38%+15 pts
- P118:07Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (2), Adam Fox (10)NSH 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 61% → 77% +15NYR 61% → 77%+15 pts
- P21:23Alexis Lafrenière Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Gabe Perreault (1), Vincent Trocheck (3)NSH 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 77% → 88% +11NYR 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P27:51Artemi Panarin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (7), Urho Vaakanainen (2)NSH 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 89% → 96% +7NYR 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 64%
- ML NSH +165 / NYR -195
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 62.3%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- NYR -175
- NSH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.4 – 3.1 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +87 Elo | NYR 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 64.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.231st of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.3% | Shot share | 51.8%9th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–5 | Road vs home | 0–732nd of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 32 |
| 30th of 321446 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 5–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–2 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.