Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Brandon DuhaimeGoals1
- Ethen FrankAssists1
- Brandon DuhaimePoints1
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Charle-Edouard D'AstousAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:42Brandon Hagel Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic James (3), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (4)2–3
- P217:08John Carlson Goal (4) , assists: none2–2
- P115:09Jake Guentzel Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (12), Brandon Hagel (7)1–2
- P16:07Emil Lilleberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (9), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (3)1–1
- P14:06Brandon Duhaime Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (2), Nic Dowd (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:06Brandon Duhaime Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (2), Nic Dowd (3)WSH 1 – 0 TB · WSH 43% → 58% +15WSH 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P16:07Emil Lilleberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (9), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (3)WSH 1 – 1 TB · TB 41% → 57% +15TB 41% → 57%+15 pts
- P115:09Jake Guentzel Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (12), Brandon Hagel (7)WSH 1 – 2 TB · TB 56% → 72% +16TB 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P217:08John Carlson Goal (4) , assists: noneWSH 2 – 2 TB · WSH 24% → 46% +21WSH 24% → 46%+21 pts
- P38:42Brandon Hagel Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic James (3), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (4)WSH 2 – 3 TB · TB 53% → 82% +29TB 53% → 82%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML WSH +125 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- TB: Elo 56.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -133
- WSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.5 – 3.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +7 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +48 Elo | TB 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 48.0%25th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 11th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 32 |
| 25th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 10th of 321520 | Elo rating | 15356th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–6 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.