Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Lucas RaymondAssists3
- Lucas RaymondPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:05Mattias Samuelsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (8), Rasmus Dahlin (10)5–4
- P39:28Ryan McLeod Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–4
- P34:25Tage Thompson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (7), Colten Ellis (1)3–4
- P217:58Josh Doan Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (9), Bowen Byram (6)2–4
- P28:50Alex DeBrincat Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (14), Moritz Seider (8)1–4
- P25:56Dylan Larkin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (13), Moritz Seider (7)1–3
- P23:52Alex DeBrincat Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (12)1–2
- P110:52Alex Tuch Goal (7) Backhand, assists: none1–1
- P110:23Patrick Kane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:23Patrick Kane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (3)BUF 0 – 1 DET · DET 59% → 73% +15DET 59% → 73%+15 pts
- P110:52Alex Tuch Goal (7) Backhand, assists: noneBUF 1 – 1 DET · BUF 27% → 41% +15BUF 27% → 41%+15 pts
- P23:52Alex DeBrincat Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (12)BUF 1 – 2 DET · DET 58% → 75% +17DET 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P39:28Ryan McLeod Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 4 – 4 DET · BUF 17% → 46% +29BUF 17% → 46%+29 pts
- OT1:05Mattias Samuelsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (8), Rasmus Dahlin (10)BUF 5 – 4 DET · BUF 48% → 91% +44BUF 48% → 91%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML BUF +140 / DET -160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- DET: Elo 58.9%, market 59.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -148
- BUF +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +63 Elo | DET 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.121st of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.6%24th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–7 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 32 |
| 1st of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 32 |
| 28th of 321467 | Elo rating | 149916th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–11 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–6 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.