Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:11Gabriel Landeskog Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (12)3–6
- P316:53Martin Necas Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (19), Samuel Girard (1)3–5
- P216:22Gavin Brindley Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (2), Brent Burns (8)3–4
- P214:56Tage Thompson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Isak Rosen (2), Peyton Krebs (4)3–3
- P113:28Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (5), Josh Doan (6)2–3
- P19:46Brock Nelson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (7), Gavin Brindley (3)1–3
- P17:47Bowen Byram Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (7), Alex Tuch (9)1–2
- P16:10Artturi Lehkonen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (8), Martin Necas (11)0–2
- P10:52Martin Necas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (18), Devon Toews (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:52Martin Necas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (18), Devon Toews (7)BUF 0 – 1 COL · COL 76% → 86% +10COL 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P19:46Brock Nelson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (7), Gavin Brindley (3)BUF 1 – 3 COL · COL 85% → 93% +7COL 85% → 93%+7 pts
- P113:28Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (5), Josh Doan (6)BUF 2 – 3 COL · BUF 7% → 15% +8BUF 7% → 15%+8 pts
- P214:56Tage Thompson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Isak Rosen (2), Peyton Krebs (4)BUF 3 – 3 COL · BUF 15% → 32% +17BUF 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P216:22Gavin Brindley Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (2), Brent Burns (8)BUF 3 – 4 COL · COL 67% → 85% +18COL 67% → 85%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- COL 76%
- ML BUF +300 / COL -400
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- COL: Elo 71.2%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -320
- BUF +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.4 – 4.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −9 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +157 Elo | COL 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 74.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 73.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +1.51st of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 56.5%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–6 | Road vs home | 5–26th of 32 |
| 1st of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 32 |
| 27th of 321469 | Elo rating | 15691st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–10 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–4 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.