Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jesperi KotkaniemiGoals1
- Jesperi KotkaniemiAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:32Charles Alexis Legault Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (10)3–6
- P317:56Seth Jarvis Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (2)3–5
- P36:49
Tage Thompson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (5), Alex Tuch (8)3–4 - P33:23Alex Tuch Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (6)2–4
- P30:29Eric Robinson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3), Charles Alexis Legault (1)1–4
- P211:39Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Nystrom (1), Taylor Hall (5)1–3
- P24:34Andrei Svechnikov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (4), Nikolaj Ehlers (5)1–2
- P18:18Owen Power Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (1)1–1
- P15:00Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:00Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (2)BUF 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 67% → 80% +12CAR 67% → 80%+12 pts
- P18:18Owen Power Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (1)BUF 1 – 1 CAR · BUF 20% → 33% +13BUF 20% → 33%+13 pts
- P24:34Andrei Svechnikov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (4), Nikolaj Ehlers (5)BUF 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 64% → 80% +16CAR 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P211:39Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Nystrom (1), Taylor Hall (5)BUF 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 80% → 92% +11CAR 80% → 92%+11 pts
- P36:49Tage Thompson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (5), Alex Tuch (8)BUF 3 – 4 CAR · BUF 4% → 16% +12BUF 4% → 16%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 68%
- ML BUF +200 / CAR -240
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -212
- BUF +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.7 – 3.8 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −6 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +98 Elo | CAR 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 66.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.01st of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 54.1%3rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–4 | Road vs home | 4–12nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 15494th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–3 CAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.