Buffalo Sabres at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Bowen ByramAssists1
- Bowen ByramPoints1
Mammoth- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:33Clayton Keller Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (11), Logan Cooley (6)2–5
- P310:09Nick Schmaltz Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (10)2–4
- P33:22Lawson Crouse Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (7), Jack McBain (2)2–3
- P30:52JJ Peterka Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: John Marino (7), Mikhail Sergachev (10)2–2
- P210:42Nick DeSimone Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (3), Nate Schmidt (4)2–1
- P26:42Isak Rosen Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (2)2–0
- P15:33Isak Rosen Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Jack Quinn (5), Bowen Byram (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:33Isak Rosen Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Jack Quinn (5), Bowen Byram (5)BUF 1 – 0 UTA · BUF 37% → 52% +15BUF 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P26:42Isak Rosen Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (2)BUF 2 – 0 UTA · BUF 59% → 76% +17BUF 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P210:42Nick DeSimone Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (3), Nate Schmidt (4)BUF 2 – 1 UTA · UTA 21% → 39% +18UTA 21% → 39%+18 pts
- P30:52JJ Peterka Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: John Marino (7), Mikhail Sergachev (10)BUF 2 – 2 UTA · UTA 33% → 58% +25UTA 33% → 58%+25 pts
- P33:22Lawson Crouse Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (7), Jack McBain (2)BUF 2 – 3 UTA · UTA 57% → 81% +24UTA 57% → 81%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 64%
- ML BUF +165 / UTA -195
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- UTA: Elo 57.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- UTA -175
- BUF +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.6 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +3 | BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +54 Elo | UTA 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 55.0%3rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 87.9%29th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–5 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 25th of 321473 | Elo rating | 150214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–9 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 0–3 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.
