Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Michael CarconeGoals1
- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Mikhail SergachevPoints1
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Jake McCabeAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:53Dylan Guenther Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (3), John Marino (6)3–5
- P317:01Matthew Knies Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (14), Jake McCabe (6)2–5
- P315:40Matias Maccelli Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (3), Morgan Rielly (8)2–4
- P38:06John Tavares Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Bobby McMann (2), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8)2–3
- P216:27Mikhail Sergachev Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitri Simashev (1)2–2
- P28:56Auston Matthews Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (4), Jake McCabe (5)1–2
- P24:46William Nylander Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (13), John Tavares (11)1–1
- P118:49Michael Carcone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:49Michael Carcone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (2)UTA 1 – 0 TOR · UTA 44% → 61% +17UTA 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P24:46William Nylander Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (13), John Tavares (11)UTA 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 37% → 55% +19TOR 37% → 55%+19 pts
- P28:56Auston Matthews Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (4), Jake McCabe (5)UTA 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 55% → 74% +19TOR 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P216:27Mikhail Sergachev Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitri Simashev (1)UTA 2 – 2 TOR · UTA 24% → 46% +21UTA 24% → 46%+21 pts
- P38:06John Tavares Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Bobby McMann (2), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8)UTA 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 53% → 82% +28TOR 53% → 82%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML UTA +125 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 64.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- UTA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +8 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +104 Elo | TOR 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.0% | Shot share | 49.5%16th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 15308th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 3–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.