Utah Mammoth at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Lawson CrouseGoals1
- Michael CarconeAssists1
- Lawson CrousePoints1
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Alex NewhookAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:23Kirby Dach Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none2–6
- P318:00Nick Suzuki Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (6)2–5
- P313:29Cole Caufield Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (3), Mike Matheson (6)2–4
- P213:13Alex Newhook Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (4)2–3
- P26:44Cole Caufield Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (10)2–2
- P26:02Lawson Crouse Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (2), Jack McBain (1)2–1
- P114:45Oliver Kapanen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (9), Alexandre Carrier (5)1–1
- P13:03Kailer Yamamoto Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (6), Kevin Stenlund (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:03Kailer Yamamoto Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (6), Kevin Stenlund (2)UTA 1 – 0 MTL · UTA 54% → 68% +14UTA 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P114:45Oliver Kapanen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (9), Alexandre Carrier (5)UTA 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 30% → 46% +16MTL 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P26:02Lawson Crouse Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (2), Jack McBain (1)UTA 2 – 1 MTL · UTA 53% → 71% +18UTA 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P26:44Cole Caufield Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (10)UTA 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 28% → 47% +18MTL 28% → 47%+18 pts
- P213:13Alex Newhook Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (4)UTA 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 47% → 68% +21MTL 47% → 68%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 54%
- ML UTA -130 / MTL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- UTA: Elo 48.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.9 – 2.6 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −8 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +8 Elo | MTL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.0% | Shot share | 47.9%26th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
| 18th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 148730th of 32 |
| 13th of 321510 | Elo rating | 149519th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–7 | 4–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–1 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.
